EU Tax Reform Roadmap 2026 - 2030
Here’s a detailed 2026–2030 EU tax-reform roadmap , along with projected revenue impacts (where available) and key implementation risks. This is based on current legislative trajectories, Commission and Council signals, and tax-policy analyses as of 2025.
| Time | Key Reform / Initiative | What’s Changing | Expected Revenue Impacts | Risks & Implementation Challenges |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Pillar 2 Reporting (DAC9) |
- First Top-Up Tax Information Returns (TTIR) due (30 June 2026) under DAC9. - Member States exchange TTIR data by end of year. |
No publicly broken-out new tax revenue from DAC9 itself; but DAC9 is an administrative cooperation measure to support enforcement of the global minimum tax (Pillar 2), helping Member States ensure they collect the agreed “top-up” tax. |
- Data collection & quality risk: large MNEs must consolidate group-level data for central filing. - Different capacity across tax authorities: some states may struggle to process TTIR data. - Legal risks if Member States delay transposition (deadline: 31 Dec 2025). |
| 2027–2028 | VAT Digital Reforms (ViDA) – early phases |
- Start of OSS / One-Stop-Shop (Single VAT Registration) expansion. - Platforms (short-term accommodation, passenger transport) may begin applying “deemed-supplier” rule from 1 July 2028 (or possibly 2030, depending on Member State) per ViDA. |
According to Council / Consilium estimates, changes in the platform economy (deemed-supplier) could bring up to ~€6.6 billion/year in additional VAT for Member States over ten years. |
- Technical and administrative burden on platforms to rework VAT collection. - Member States need to revamp OSS infrastructure. - Some countries may delay or phase in “deemed supplier” more slowly; uneven adoption. - Risk of business pushback / legal challenges, especially for SMEs or micro-entrepreneurs. |
| 2030 | Full Digital Reporting & E-Invoicing (ViDA) |
- From 1 July 2030, mandatory structured e-invoices for intra-EU B2B (and some B2G) transactions. - Digital Reporting Requirements (DRR): real-time (or near real-time) VAT reporting via e-invoicing systems. |
- Commission projects that digital reporting could reduce VAT fraud by up to €11 billion/year. - Administrative cost savings: e-invoicing and digital reporting could save businesses ~€4.1 billion/year over 10 years. |
- Technical challenges: integration of national e-invoicing systems, standardization of data formats. - Implementation costs for Member States (IT systems, training). - Data privacy / security concerns with real-time reporting. - Risk of non-compliance / resistance by businesses unfamiliar with e-invoicing. |
| 2028–2035 (Longer Horizon) | ViDA – Complete Rollout |
- All national systems to converge to EU-standard e-invoicing / DRR (by 1 Jan 2035). - Reverse charge mechanisms and OSS enhancements. - Electronic VAT exemption certificate fully operational. According to Consilium, electronic certificate adoption is expected; Member States to transition from paper. |
- Over time, better VAT compliance, lower fraud, improved cross-border VAT collection. - According to the Commission’s ViDA impact assessment, about €18 billion/year in additional VAT revenue is “potentially unlocked” by ViDA: ~€11 bn from anti-fraud (reporting) + rest from efficiency / other measures. |
- Large differences in digital capacity across Member States could slow convergence. - Risk that some countries lag in transposing or building required IT infrastructure. - Ongoing maintenance cost for e-invoicing, reporting platforms. - Legal / operational risk around cross-border data sharing and interoperability. |
| Throughout 2026–2030 | Crypto-Asset Transparency (DAC8) |
- Reporting by Crypto-Asset Service Providers (RCASPs) begins in 2026; full automatic exchange to tax authorities. (As per DAC8 timeline) - Enhanced administrative cooperation on crypto-asset-related income and holdings. |
- While not all of this is “new tax” per se, increased transparency is expected to improve detection of undeclared crypto gains, raising revenue. - Hard to estimate exact revenue: depends on compliance, size of crypto economy in each Member State. However, the transparency drive is aligned with the Commission’s goal to close tax compliance gaps. - The 2025 Annual Report on Taxation notes large compliance gaps (VAT gap ~€89 bn, CIT losses tens of billions) which reforms like DAC8 aim to reduce. |
- Compliance burden on crypto platforms: they must build strong KYC / data collection infrastructure. - Risk of regulatory arbitrage: some providers may relocate. - Data quality, privacy, and security issues. - Divergence in how Member States interpret and operationalize DAC8 obligations. - Potential delay or difficulty in transposing into national law, though DAC8 has strict deadlines. |
Broader Strategic Implications (2026–2030)
1. Revenue Mobilization & Fiscal Resilience
The combination of ViDA (VAT digitalisation) and increased cooperation under DAC9 and DAC8 is not just technical — it's part of a broader EU strategy to mobilize revenue more effectively, recover lost tax, and strengthen fiscal resilience. Indeed, the Commission’s 2025 annual report highlights persistent tax compliance gaps and declining tax-to-GDP ratios in some regimes.
By closing the VAT gap and enhancing corporate tax enforcement (especially for large multinationals), Member States may shore up their fiscal position without solely relying on increasing rates.
2. Digital Transformation of Tax Administration
These reforms force a modernization of tax authorities: real-time data systems, e-invoicing, cross-border data sharing, and more advanced analytics.
Over time, this could lead to more efficient audits, better risk-based control, and lower administrative costs.
3. Level Playing Field & Fairness
Platform economy rules (deemed supplier) aim to level the tax playing field: digital platforms collecting VAT on behalf of “providers” who may themselves be small or unregistered, thus capturing economic activity that previously evaded VAT burdens.
Pillar 2 cooperation (via DAC9) helps ensure large multinationals pay a minimum effective tax, reducing aggressive tax planning/shifting.
4. Challenges of Divergent Implementation
While directives set common frameworks, actual implementation (IT, legal, administrative) will vary across Member States. Some may be slower, leading to fragmentation.
There is also risk of political pushback , especially from smaller Member States concerned about sovereignty or compliance costs.
5. Data Protection & Trust
Real-time VAT reporting and cross-border tax data sharing raise legitimate questions about data security, standardization, and privacy. Trust in the data systems will be crucial.
Tax authorities will need to ensure robust cybersecurity, clear data governance frameworks, and transparency about how data are used.
Major Risks Threatening the Roadmap
- Delays in Transposition: Member States may not transpose directives fully or on time (e.g., DAC9, ViDA), slowing down rollout.
- IT Implementation Risks: Building interoperable e-invoicing systems is complex; cost overruns, technical glitches, or vendor issues could hamper adoption.
- Compliance Costs for Business: Particularly SMEs and platforms may struggle to adapt, leading to business resistance or non-compliance.
- Regulatory Arbitrage: Some companies (especially in the crypto space) may relocate or lobby for favorable treatment.
- Privacy & Data Security: Risk of breaches, misuse of sensitive transactional data, or lack of trust among taxpayers.
- Political Backlash: Tax reforms touching large multinational profit or platform revenues could generate domestic political resistance.
Key Success Factors to Watch (2026–2030)
- How effectively Member States build the required digital infrastructure , especially for e-invoicing and DRR.
- The degree of coordination between tax administrations: sharing TTIR data (Pillar 2), crypto data, cross-border VAT data.
- The uptake by platforms of the deemed-supplier model and their compliance.
- Monitoring and evaluation: whether the Commission (or independent bodies) track the actual revenue gains, compliance improvements, and fraud reductions.
- Citizen and business engagement: training businesses, especially smaller ones, on new obligations; ensuring transparency to maintain trust.